The Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) recently released new REMI 2050 economic/demographic forecasts for our region, as developed by the U-M’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE), in partnership with MDOT. The forecast includes data on population, households, employment, gross domestic product (GDP) and labor participation rates, all by county.
The household (HH) forecast tables include several HH-based variables such as HH size, income, and vehicles. The other REMI forecast tables include separate tabs for employment, population, employment sector output, population change, and labor force/income/GDP. Founded in 1980, Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) is based on the idea that government decision-makers should test the economic effects of their policies before they are implemented.
The forecast is the product of:
· The REMI TranSight® economic and demographic forecasting and simulation model
· RSQE’s U.S. and Michigan forecasts and forecasting judgment
· Comments and insights from a number of local Metropolitan Planning Organizations and regional planning organizations
MATS is presenting and summarizing the tables herein for Midland, Bay and Saginaw counties, covering the entire MATS area that includes Williams Township in Bay County and Tittabawassee Township in Saginaw County.
As can be seen in the summary tables below, the three geographically adjacent counties have somewhat different outlooks in the three key indicators. A reminder however, that these are only projections, and as such can only be as good as the data and assumptions that went into them.
In terms of population levels, 2020 starts the tables off with a slightly reduced total, with subsequent decades showing at least some growth from there. For Bay and Saginaw counties, however, the 2050 population totals are either only slightly above, or even below, the 2020 numbers. Both counties show declines from 2040-2050.
This pattern generally holds true throughout the various measures presented here, with the effects of the pandemic being felt across all areas and in multiple ways.
